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44 percent of those surveyed on crypto Twitter believe the price of bitcoin core (BTC) has a ways to go before finding bottom, while over half of Wall Street and institutional investors seem to believe BTC’s bottom has been reached. The poll was conducted by Fundstrat, comparing the views comprised of 25 Wall Street related institutions against those of 9,500 respondents on Twitter.
Fundstrat: Wall Street is Optimistic While the Ecosystem Remains Sour on BTC’s Price
Over the period of a week in late September of this year, Fundstrat conducted a poll between institutional or Wall Street investors and Twitter respondents, who might be considered the broader spectrum of crypto enthusiasts. While not particularly scientific in the strictest sense, and therefore can be interpreted a number of ways, it does provide some counter-intuitive data.
What jumps out to most keen observers of the space is the conclusion Wall Street is more optimistic about BTC prices than crypto Twitter. Fundstrat found 54 percent of Wall Street respondents were fairly sure the world’s most popular cryptocurrency has hit its price bottom. Crypto Twitter, however, over 9,000 strong, was decidedly less hopeful: only 44 percent felt BTC was at bottom, suggesting there might be a ways to go yet. And by the end of 2019, institutions were more likely to predict BTC hitting $ 15,000 (57%) compared to just 40% crypto Twitter’s respondents.
Central Banks and Emerging Markets Are Macro Factors Impacting Future of Crypto
25 institutions received ten questions, while Twitter got a version of those whittled down to just six, eliciting 9,500 responses. More obvious takeaways include how both genres polled agreed ‘macro factors’ impacting crypto going forward are central banks and emerging markets, which ranked 1 and 2 respectively. Institutions, however, view politics as having a greater impact compared to their crypto Twitter counterparts.
Alternative token ripple (XRP) made an appearance within the poll. Of more than a dozen choices offered, nearly six out of ten institutions chose BTC as their favorite. Crypto Twitter picked XRP as their favorite (46%). Curiously, though chosen as its preferred coin, 31 percent of Twitter believes XRP makes the “least sense” of any crypto. No institution chose XRP as their favorite.
Other findings of interest include how institutions polled were decidedly bullish on BTC’s price rising, with 57 percent believing it will be between at least $ 15,000 to “the moon” by next year’s end. And should the US economy fall to recession, only 59% of crypto Twitter believed cryptocurrency prices would rise, while institutions remain more optimistic with 72% answering crypto could very well increase in price during economic down times.
Are you optimistic about BTC’s price? Let us know in the comments below.
Images courtesy of Shutterstock, Fundstrat.
At Bitcoin.com there’s a bunch of free helpful services. For instance, have you seen our Tools page? You can even look up the exchange rate for a transaction in the past. Or calculate the value of your current holdings. Or create a paper wallet. And much more.
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In prepared testimony given before the U.S. House of Representatives Financial Services Committee, Yaya Fanusie, director of analysis for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, explained how though terrorists have tried to raise funds through cryptocurrencies, instances are rare to non-existent. Instead, groups seeking to cause mayhem much prefer good, old cash.
Terrorists Prefer Cash to Cryptocurrency to Fund Efforts
“The good news is that most terrorists, particularly those operating on jihadist battlefields, inhabit environments that are not currently conducive to cryptocurrency use,” Mr. Fanusie clarified for an anxious U.S. Congress Subcommittee on Terrorism and Illicit Finance this week. “They usually need to purchase goods with cash (which is the most anonymous funding method), often in areas with unreliable technology infrastructure. In addition, cryptocurrencies are based on distributed ledger (blockchain) technology, where users’ pseudonymous transactions are recorded for public viewing. This leaves a trail that unsophisticated users may find difficult to obfuscate. However, as digital currency usage grows, such barriers may fall away.”
It turns out, Mr. Fanusie is something of a trope killer for crypto. This isn’t the first time he’s disabused Congress of its assumption decentralized digital money is a force for evil. He worked for the better part of a decade at the CIA as a counterterrorism analyst. He routinely had the ears of the US military, White House policy wonks, and law enforcement. He even personally briefed then-President George W. Bush on the spectre of threats as far back as 2008.
“Cold hard cash is still king,” Mr. Fanusie continued, “but jihadist groups are building diverse portfolios. Illicit actors adopt new technologies earlier than the broader public. When paper checks, credit cards, and Paypal each emerged, criminals exploited them early on. There are enough case studies of jihadist groups experimenting with cryptocurrencies to suggest that law enforcement and the intelligence community must prepare for terrorists to try to exploit digital tokens as the technology spreads.”
Connection Still a Little Fuzzy; Job Security
The crypto currency committee has been fighting connections to terrorism put forward by governments since the day politicians discovered Bitcoin existed. As these very pages summarized, “The first conflation of digital currencies and terrorism actually stems from a 2008 paper in the Richmond Journal of Law and Technology in which the author stated that ‘[terrorists] seeking to avoid detection have turned to other methods of transferring money, such as commodities trades, hawala, and digital currencies.’ In defining this latter phrase, the report referenced a paper entitled ‘The Cyber-Front in the War on Terrorism: Curbing Terrorist Use of the Internet.’ It was published in 2005. That’s right, terrorists allegedly using digital currencies is older than bitcoin itself.”
And the test for enthusiasts has always been: if in fact bitcoin core or some other crypto was used during a terrorist act, such news would be sounded to the heavens. That neither has seemingly happened is telling. For experts such as Mr. Fanusie, merely dismissing the threat won’t get him invited back to hearings. So, anyone wishing to maintain intellectual integrity, yet hope to keep their job, seem to have to thread a testimonial needle. Sure, an expert might have to admit terrorists are not using it, but they could!
“Cryptocurrencies may become the way we transact in the future,” Mr. Fanusie concludes. “But they are also becoming part of the illicit financing toolkit available to terrorists. FDD’s Center on Sanctions and Illicit Finance (CSIF) has now documented cryptocurrency fundraising campaigns run by social media entities associated with the Islamic State and al-Qaeda. Although public evidence indicates that terrorist groups have had only limited success so far with cryptocurrency fundraising efforts, the rising profile of digital currency has been accompanied by jihadist networks experimenting with them more frequently. By preparing now for terrorists’ increasing usage of cryptocurrencies, the U.S. can limit the ability to turn digital currency markets into a sanctuary for illicit finance,” thus preserving his and his policy group’s return invitations to Congress for years to come.
Is use by terrorists a real problem for cryptocurrency adoption going forward? Let us know in the comments section below.
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The post Terrorists Prefer Cash to Crypto, According to Congressional Testimony appeared first on Bitcoin News.
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If you want to lose weight, curb your appetite by avoiding these foods that will only make you hungrier.
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Fundstrat Global, a favorite research firm in the cryptosphere with Wall Street-street cred, is once again providing eye-popping bitcoin (BTC) predictions. This time analysis depends largely on what’s known as the mining economy. Hash power and hardware advancement all combine to show a possible $ 36,000 BTC price by the end of next year, they claim.
Fundstrat Continues Moon Price Predictions
Fundstrat’s head of data research, Sam Doctor, explained, “The release of the next generation of rig hardware should trigger a new round of capex as well as hash power growth, which could accelerate if BTC price appreciates.”
Capex is short for capital expenditure, and refers here to upgrades in technology such as mining rigs. Hash power growth can be thought of as cryptocurrencies such as bitcoin using proof of work, relying on a unit of measure basically recording power consumed by the network to keep it humming along, in this case, roughly every ten minutes a block is found or generated.
“We believe the current path of hash power growth supports a BTC price of about $ 36,000 by 2019 year end, with a $ 20,000-$ 64,000 range,” Mr. Doctor continued. “The primary net sellers, in our view, are bitcoin miners, and the rest are transactions between investors.”
If a multiple of four from its current price seems ambitious, the actual range from Fundstrat pushes the high to nearly twice even that number. Mr. Doctor uses mining economics to establish a floor support level due to its supposed relative growth going forward. Through next year, researchers believe mining hash power will indeed boom by 350 percent.
A Rosy Immediate Future
Most of the price moon prediction depends upon miners Fundstrat assumes will hold their position through the crypto winter, and then sell once it recovers (and better). Moving variables in the mining economy include rig innovation, electricity cost, and the ability to lower hardware temperatures.
Mr. Doctor further elaborated how “miners verify and process transactions, supporting the network in exchange for mining rewards and transaction fees. We argue that the Price/Miner’s Breakeven Cost multiple has proven a reliable long-term support level, and further, that the likely trajectory of future mining infrastructure growth should underpin Bitcoin price appreciation into year-end 2019.” And harder numbers Fundstrat asserts to be $ 6K per BTC for Bitmain’s Antminer S7, and just over $ 2K for its S9 model.
Such rosey price predictions are nothing new for Fundstrat Global. Its very public face, and really only prominent Wall Street analyst to take cryptocurrencies seriously as an asset class, Tom Lee, famously last Summer forecast BTC becoming a store of value on par with gold, reaching a high of as much as $ 55K by 2022. As more information has come in, Mr. Lee has also said he expects the digital asset could moon to $ 25K by the end of this year alone.
Still other analysts believe the causal connection between mining activity and speculative price is not well established, leading to perhaps more outlandish price calls as a result. And with other cryptocurrencies battling it out for market share, offering varieties of features not currently found in bitcoin, the BTC price explosion might not be such a given. At press time, BTC price hovered around $ 8,500, down almost ten percent.
What are your crypto price predictions? Let us know in the comments section below.
Images courtesy of Shutterstock, Fundstrat.
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The post Bitcoin Moons to $ 36,000 by End of 2019 According to Fundstrat appeared first on Bitcoin News.
Former Obama administration financial regulator Gary Gensler believes cryptocurrencies such as ether and ripple appear as unregistered securities, and in current violation of the law. His comments carry considerable weight in the broader financial community. They also come after venture capitalists and lawyers invested in ether projects met secretly with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to head off such regulation. Spokespeople for both coins insist they’re not securities.
Ether and Ripple Might Be Securities
Former Obama CFTC head Gary Gensler told The New York Times, “I would be surprised if 10 years from now this isn’t somewhere in the financial system in a meaningful way. But so much of the stuff that is being promoted now will not be around.” The ‘this’ he’s speaking of is cryptocurrencies, and as part of his appointment to the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Mr. Gensler is weighing in on the phenomenon’s future with regard to regulation.
In particular, he’s focusing upon two of the most popular cryptos, ether and ripple, as potentially very susceptible to future designation as securities. Should that happen, many experts believe it would herald the decline of both. Securities regulation imposes a host of legal burdens upon registrants, and costs to comply are often prohibitive and burdensome.
“There is a strong case for both of them — but particularly Ripple — that they are noncompliant securities,” he told Nathaniel Popper. Bitcoin and others like it are decentralized to such an extent as to not trigger regulation, he believes. That’s not so clear in the cases of ether and ripple, both of which Mr. Gensler insists are in violation of securities law.
“2018 is going to be a very interesting time. Over 1,000 previously issued initial coin offerings, and over 100 exchanges that offer I.C.O.s, are going to need to sort out how to come into compliance with U.S. securities law,” the Times quotes him as saying. Indeed, representatives with heavy financial interests in ether-related projects recently were discovered to have secretly pled their case to the SEC in hopes of heading off what some say is certain regulation. That’s a potential problem for tens of billions of dollars in coins respectively when ether and ripple are combined.
Impact Not Good
Should such a designation be handed down, one of crypto’s largest markets, the United States, would essentially be cut off, made against the law for trading ETH and XRP on exchanges. It’s not too extreme to figure such a move would impact both coins’ prices, and probably not in a good way.
Mr. Gensler, 60, was tapped by MIT’s Media Lab and its Digital Currency Initiative, along with being a lecturer at its Sloan School of Management (with a blockchain emphasis) for his expertise in the financial sector. His views on the future of regulation carry heft simply because of his past experience in the Obama administration, and previous connections to Goldman Sachs as well as helping to finance the ill-fated Hillary Clinton run of 2016.
Asked for comment about Mr. Gensler’s claims, the Ethereum Foundation answered how it “neither controls the supply of nor has the ability to issue Ether, and the quantity of Ether that the foundation holds (under 1 percent of all Ether) is already lower than that held by many other ecosystem participants,” according to the Times. A Ripple spokesperson responded by insisting, “XRP does not give its owners an interest or stake in Ripple, and they are not paid dividends. XRP exists independent of Ripple, was created before the company and will exist after it.”
Do you think ether and ripple should be regulated? Share your thoughts in the comments section below.
Images courtesy of Shutterstock.
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The post Ether & Ripple Doomed As Securities According to Regulation Expert appeared first on Bitcoin News.
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