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| April 26, 2018

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TMZ

‘The Four’ Star Zhavia Ward Scores Huge Record Deal

April 22, 2018 |

Zhavia Ward is going to be the next big thing — at least that’s what her new record company is banking — cuz they just signed her to a potentially multi-million dollar deal. The 17-year-old fan favorite of ‘The Four’ didn’t win FOX’s singing…

TMZ.com

Zuckerberg Responds to ‘the Cambridge Analytica Situation’

March 22, 2018 |

“We have a responsibility to protect your data, and if we can’t then we don’t deserve to serve you,” Mark Zuckerberg said in a Facebook post Wednesday, breaking his silence on what he calls “the Cambridge Analytica situation.” It was the Facebook CEO’s first public statement since the scandal broke…
Newser

TMZ

‘The Bachelor’ Reveals Becca as Next ‘Bachelorette’ After Face-to-Face with Arie

March 7, 2018 |

If there’s an upside to having your heart broken and your engagement called off while cameras roll for a half hour, showing the world every excruciating moment … Becca Kufrin’s about to find out. “The Bachelor” star — fresh off of facing her…

TMZ.com

10 Things you never knew about ‘The Golden Girls’

March 7, 2018 |

Think you know Rose, Blanche, Sophia and Dorothy?
FOX News

TMZ

Dwayne ‘The Rock’ Johnson’s Daughter Had Medical Emergency

March 6, 2018 |

Dwayne Johnson’s got a huge shout-out for the 911 operator and paramedics who talked him through a medical emergency involving his 2-year-old daughter. The Rock says Jasmine fell ill Saturday night in L.A. and he dialed 911. Although he isn’t…

TMZ.com

Trading Tip `The Wall´ – Bitcoin Dominance On The Rise

March 4, 2018 |

Trading Tip `The Wall´ - Bitcoin Dominance On The Rise

In the cryptocurrency market today, there’s a wide variety of investors. But it wasn’t always like that. Between 2010-2016, the landscape was pretty uncomplicated. On a high level, there were only two distinct categories: 1, The ones who measured their wealth in fiat; 2, The ones who measured their wealth in bitcoin.

Also read: Meet the TA Gods

Bitcoin and Investor Types

When a Type 1 person meets a Type 2 person, this is typically how the conversation would go.

Type 1 person: Bitcoin is doing great, I’m so glad I bought some. One of my best investments.

Type 2 person: Yeah, it’s awesome.

Type 1 person: So at what price do you think you’re gonna sell at?

Type 2 person: Hm? I’ve already sold. I sold my fiat for bitcoin.

Trading Tip `The Wall´ - Bitcoin Dominance On The Rise

The fundamental bitcoin meme.

In the years 2010-2016, Type 1 investors typically got so destroyed in comparison to the performance of Type 2 that another label for these types quickly got adopted: “weak” vs “strong hands”. With the altcoin onslaught of 2017, I expect the distinction between weak and strong hands is about to retire in favor of a new categorization:

  1. The ones who still hold only bitcoin
  2. The ones who bought altcoins 

In the future, assuming cryptocurrencies as a whole continue to flourish, we can imagine the cryptocurrency market going three different ways.

Scenario A: Bitcoin re-establishes itself as the king of crypto, succeeding in capturing the SoV (store-of-value) and the MoE (medium-of-exchange) market. All functionalities and attributes of its competitors are re-implemented through bitcoin features such as sidechain/drivechains and second-layer technologies. This view is known as bitcoin maximalism. Different altcoins come and go but fail to become relevant through lack of network effect, and those who staked too much on the success of the up-and-comers of today see their fortunes wither.

Scenario B: The dust never truly settles on the cryptocurrency battlefield. Different cryptocurrencies continue to emerge and fill different needs in harmony with each other. Protocols like Interledger tie the cryptocurrency landscape together via atomic swaps, allowing for a seamless experience of the multi-cryptocurrency world. While this scenario is interesting and plausible, it fragments both the liquidity and the security of cryptocurrencies as a whole. Depending on how marginalized bitcoin becomes in this scenario, the yearly performance of those who diversified with the right aptitude for spotting innovation will leave the bitcoin maximalists in the dust.

Scenario C: The bitcoin maximalist approach to protocol development and the politics surrounding it results in bitcoin eventually falling behind competing projects. Bitcoin maximalists become financially ruined. There may be some respite in this scenario where the maximalists survive to the altcoin domain through airdrops and forks, unless they liquidate all their crypto-dividends in favor for more bitcoin (which some do).

So, where are we heading currently?

Between 2009 and March 2017, bitcoin’s share of the cryptocurrency market never once dropped below 73% (known as “bitcoin dominance”). On this day one year ago (March 3, 2017) it was still 85%. Although dominance metrics are a controversial topic because market capitalization easily inflates, the figure still serves to indicate the valuations at which people are currently pricing things at.

In retrospect, it seems crazy how fast the market has changed. To think that just about 1.5 years ago, bitcoin at $ 10,000 was described as “magical and mythical“, and today, that same price borders on being considered cheap because we hit almost $ 20,000 in December. In a similar way, bitcoin dominance breaking above 40% is considered high now just because we were at 32% 2 months ago, even though it’s catastrophically low when we zoom out. We tend to mentally anchor ourselves in previous states, and we use those anchors as reference points when determining if something is high or low.

Trading Tip `The Wall´ - Bitcoin Dominance On The Rise
Source: Coinmarketcap.

One interesting way to look at the bitcoin dominance metric in a way that ignores the scaling debate is to look at it from a historical macro-perspective.

Trading Tip `The Wall´ - Bitcoin Dominance On The Rise
Bitcoin vs Index Portfolio of top 10 altcoins. Bitcoin 4.6x vs Index 1.2x

Source: Woobull.

The simple explanation here is that altcoins rally tremendously during bull trends, but dip even worse during bear trends. But in 2017, the altcoin bull trend was further amplified by 3 important factors:

  • Bitcoin hit its scalability ceiling, giving altcoins/forks their first shot at actual relevance
  • Altcoins are actually attempting to innovate now compared to before
  • The proliferation of ICOs is affording new altcoin marketing budgets and development teams that previously were unthinkable

So, we’re heading towards Scenario B/C?

Despite graphs and numbers, there is one much more important thing to keep in mind when it comes to cryptocurrency investing, and that is all current valuations are mostly a result of pure speculation. The market is currently just a reflection of everyone’s guesses in aggregate.

I often get questions along the lines of “Thinking about picking up some Litecoin, it seems like a pretty good buy at $ 200?”. The reason is most often because Litecoin has been $ 350 previously and is therefore now cheap in relative terms. In my opinion, the fact that Litecoin has been $ 350 doesn’t matter at all; the thing that should matter if you are considering an investment in Litecoin is whether you see Scenario A, B or C as the most likely future for the cryptocurrency space as a whole.

I’d like to suggest that the investment information you are looking for is not anywhere to be found in the charts. Rather, it’s in one’s ability to understand and visualize the future of this market.

What kind of investor are you? Let us know in the comment section below!


Images via Shutterstock.


Disclaimer: Bitcoin price articles and markets updates are intended for informational purposes only and should not to be considered as trading advice. Neither Bitcoin.com nor the author is responsible for any losses or gains, as the ultimate decision to conduct a trade is made by the reader. Always remember that only those in possession of the private keys are in control of the “money.”

The post Trading Tip `The Wall´ – Bitcoin Dominance On The Rise appeared first on Bitcoin News.

Bitcoin News

Trading Tip `The Wall´ – Meet the TA Gods

February 25, 2018 |

Trading Tip `The Wall´ - Meet the TA Gods

Whether TA works or not is a topic discussed ad nauseam in cryptocurrency circles. As a cryptocurrency trader with a fascination for engineering, math and science, I backtested the entire spectrum of the most popular bitcoin TA indicators in early 2015 using the now defunct Tradewave-platform, in search of that magic formula that would allow me to make money on auto-pilot. I did not find it.

Also read: Drop Tokens That Suffer From Overtokenization

Meet the TA Gods

Currently, I’m working on recreating a 2018 version of that experiment, the results of which I’m looking forward to sharing with you in a column post soon. However, I can already reveal that the results are not looking promising. I’ve long been disillusioned with the prospects of earning a steady income using predictive algorithms, to the point where I’ve stopped believing in them completely.

Trading Tip `The Wall´ - Meet the TA Gods

So, while I color myself a TA skeptic, I still tend to marvel at the near-surgical precision of which the market tends to move in certain cases. Observing the above picture, I’m yet again amazed to see the bitcoin price just reaching the descending trend line just under $ 12,000 before continuing its downward trajectory. How can it be, that while the empirical evidence for TA disproves its relevance, these TA bulls-eye calls appear again and again?

Enter Crypto Twitter

Look at the tweet above. That is just one of hundreds of such tweets I’ve seen in the past months; tweets listing various “TA Gods”, each with tens or hundreds of thousands of followers, who seemingly worship the chart analysis bestowed upon them by their holy prophets.

One such TA god is @angelobtc, who has undoubtedly earned that position as he’s the #1 trader by notional profit on Bitmex.

 Trading Tip `The Wall´ - Meet the TA Gods

That’s $ 30 million in profit.

Make note: the top trader on Bitmex, which is the largest exchange by notional volume, is not some Goldman Sach’s trading desk or some hedge fund algo-trader. It’s a Twitter guru, fully immersed in crypto Twitter memeology, slang and banter. He’s even a decent OC meme-lord himself.

So what does @angelobtc do then with his impressive, proven track-record of trading and his 93,800 follower base? Here are some examples:

Fibonacci lines (TA).

Price calls.

Memes.

The Global Hivemind of Memes

Bitcoin traders are, demographically speaking, a pretty homogeneous group. Broadly speaking, we are 18-34 years old, male, and avid Internet users. As a group, we have since the evolution of Internet culture developed our own way of effectively spreading and sharing ideas on a global scale, and that is through viral memes. In a sense, that is how we, as a demographic, experience the world and the events in it together.

It is perhaps not that crazy to assume that this phenomenon has carried over to the bitcoin markets. I contend that at a micro scale there are certain “trading prophecies” that spread among cryptocurrency traders just like viral memes, through Twitter, Telegram and Discord trading chats. These prophecies then become real, through the belief and actions that their audience undertakes.

What are your thoughts on so-called “trading prophecies?” Let us know in the comment section below!


Images via Shutterstock, Twitter.


Disclaimer: Bitcoin price articles and markets updates are intended for informational purposes only and should not to be considered as trading advice. Neither Bitcoin.com nor the author is responsible for any losses or gains, as the ultimate decision to conduct a trade is made by the reader. Always remember that only those in possession of the private keys are in control of the “money.”

The post Trading Tip `The Wall´ – Meet the TA Gods appeared first on Bitcoin News.

Bitcoin News

Trading Tip `The Wall´ – Drop Tokens That Suffer From Overtokenization

February 18, 2018 |

Trading Tip `The Wall´ - Drop Tokens That Suffer From Overtokenization

It’s said that 90% of all startups fail, and that we should expect nothing more from ICOs. But 10% success rate is still overly optimistic for ICOs, perhaps not for the reason you may think. You’re probably aware of examples of ICO “founders” who turned out to be a bunch of made up Linkedin-profiles. You’re probably also aware of the risks that comes with sending money to people on the Internet you never met, in an asset or token impossible to freeze.

Also read: Disappearing Premiums Signal Bearish Mid-Term Outlook

Drop The Tokens That Suffer From Overtokenization

You’re probably also aware of the industry-specific risks, apart from straight up scams, which include:

  1. ICOs violating securities laws
  2. ICOs using complicated legal structures in order to avoid violating securities laws and having it back-fire
  3. ICO fundraisers using Ethereum smart contracts and imploding (this actually happened to the Ethereum co-founder himself)

In this post, I’m going to discuss a much more daunting problem that very few seem to grasp; overtokenization.

Let’s be clear: ICOs as a concept is not at all a bad way to fund the development of a new cryptocurrency. However, the ICO space today is overwhelmed by projects that are not even cryptocurrencies. ICOs have moved from covering cryptocurrencies, to apps that use an existing cryptocurrency as its platform, to regular companies doing something cryptocurrency related, to regular companies doing nothing related to cryptocurrency at all. What many ICO investors seem to forget to ask is: why exactly do these projects need to have a “token”? Somewhere along the way, everything suddenly having a token became normal, and no one barely questions it anymore. This is going to cause a huge problem in the future, and I’m going to explain why.

There are very few cryptocurrency projects that legitimately necessitate a coin or a token from a technological perspective. The known examples that do are the following: actual cryptocurrencies (e.g. Bitcoin, Litecoin, Ethereum, Bitcoin Cash, Monero), and certain protocols involving some kind of game-theoretical token usage (i.e. staking).

Trading Tip `The Wall´ - Drop The Tokens That Suffer From Overtokenization

One of the few projects from the latter category I can come to think of is Augur. Augur isn’t a cryptocurrency, but a product that uses a cryptocurrency as platform. It’s a decentralized prediction market (currently in beta-stage), consisting of as a set of smart contracts on the Ethereum blockchain. In Augur, its REP token (an ERC20) is integral to the process of resolving bets. It provides Augur with a way to financially reward and punish the actions of honest and dishonest actors, and creates incentives for a specific category of users (REP holders) to be proactive on the platform.

Augur Project

Augur perhaps isn’t a project without flaws, but what we know is that it isn’t practical to try to create Augur without a token. The token is–from the ground up–integral to the functions of the platform. The token itself is also defensible as an investment: as the popularity of the platform increases, the more revenue will there be for REP holders to earn on fees from resolving bets. I would argue that these ingredients are pretty unique to Augur (and perhaps also similar projects like Gnosis). In fact, there are an extremely limited number of cases of non-cryptocurrencies where a token is both technologically necessary and useful as an investment.

But the allure of launching a project like Augur is tantalizing; you don’t have to plan to create a whole cryptocurrency to launch an ICO, you just need a product that somehow utilizes a token that in some manner economically motivates people to hold it. If you figure out that, then you can launch an ICO too.

Because of the insane amounts of money investors poured into ICOs, every entrepreneur in the industry has quickly decided that whatever project they’re working on should probably  involve some kind of token. Because not all projects are launching a new cryptocurrency, and they do not involve game-theory or staking that necessitates a token like Augur, most projects have settled with a model where a specific token is required to utilize its services.

Trading Tip `The Wall´ - Drop The Tokens That Suffer From Overtokenization

Golem plans to build a decentralized market for computing power.

A Token-Critical Perspective

This is where the industry is running into a problem. Instead of an ecosystem of services being built around cryptocurrencies, you will now have to first purchase a specific token in order to utilize those services. Whether its storage space for rent, processing power for rent or something else, you won’t be able to pay for those things directly in your favorite cryptocurrency, you’ll have to use the specific token they’ve restricted their service to accepting, in order to raise money from you in their token sale.

This restriction severely diminishes the utility of the service they are creating. In the Golem example, its participants will be forced to accept payment in GNT rather than bitcoin for instance. It’s very unlikely that GNT is going to be as liquid as bitcoin, and therefore it is much more likely that the value of GNT will fluctuate spectacularly in comparison, which isn’t very convenient for its users. Furthermore, some sort of micro-economy will have to evolve around the GNT token, that relies on GNT tokens to purchase services later resold to the market. That opens up a whole new attack surface of the service, where the entire platform could essentially be hijacked in a coordinated act of market manipulation. This is why absurd constructs such as Bancor have appeared, in order to solve this ridiculous problem.

This doesn’t necessarily mean that Golem and the likes of it will be useless; however, there’s a very real chance that something else eventually comes along and builds a platform where computer resources can be rented in the currency of its users choosing. Such a competing platform, without the friction of being restricted to a specific token, has a very big edge on its ICO-launched competitor. In the end, while it may be true that an ICO could be the thing that gets a project off the ground that wouldn’t have otherwise, it may also be the thing that kills it.

My trading tip this week is to go through your portfolio and evaluate your investments from a token-critical perspective. Get rid of those tokens that add no benefit to the product or service they are providing, and in many cases are a down-right handicap.

What are your thoughts on market manipulation? Let us know in the comment section below!


Images via Shutterstock, Twitter.


Disclaimer: Bitcoin price articles and markets updates are intended for informational purposes only and should not to be considered as trading advice. Neither Bitcoin.com nor the author is responsible for any losses or gains, as the ultimate decision to conduct a trade is made by the reader. Always remember that only those in possession of the private keys are in control of the “money.”

The post Trading Tip `The Wall´ – Drop Tokens That Suffer From Overtokenization appeared first on Bitcoin News.

Bitcoin News

The Index Card Read, ‘the Small Ones Will Know Terror’

February 16, 2018 |

A former teacher and his twin face federal bomb-making charges after more than 32 pounds of explosives were found in their Bronx apartment, alongside documents suggesting they planned to kill. Christian and Tyler Toro, 27, were arrested in a Thursday raid in which police say they also found a diary…
Newser