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| March 23, 2019

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Unlikely Archives -

Suspect Offers Unlikely Story on How 11-Year-Old Had His Baby

January 17, 2019 |

A 33-year-old man accused of raping and impregnating an 11-year-old girl claims it was all the work of a piece of cloth. Robert Cronin of Niskayuna, NY, pleaded not guilty to predatory sexual assault against a child on Wednesday—the same day he told WTEN ‘s Anya Tucker that the…

Ex-Nissan chief Ghosn charged with breach of trust; release on bail unlikely

January 11, 2019 |

Nissan’s ex-Chairman Carlos Ghosn was charged Friday with breach of trust, according to the Tokyo District Court, making the star executive’s release unlikely for months.

Ghosn, arrested Nov. 19, was earlier charged with falsifying financial reports in underreporting his income by about 5 billion…

L.A. Times – Business

Chatter Report: Pompliano Praises Bitcoin Performance, Antonopoulos Says Death Spiral ‘Unlikely’

December 5, 2018 |

Anthony Pompliano: Bitcoin "Best Performing Asset”, Andreas Antonopoulos: Bitcoin Death Spiral “Unlikely”

In today’s Chatter Report, we explore the different ways crypto influencers have been responding to the low prices of 2018. Some are unfazed like Anthony Pompliano, who still believes that bitcoin is the best performing asset. Others are reassuring like Andreas Antonopoulos, who has been busy addressing concerns about bitcoin being in a death spiral. The rest are pensive like James McAvity, who has been theorizing about which miners are holding their coins rather than selling them.

Also Read: Paxful Completes Second School in Rwanda #BuiltWithBitcoin

Bitcoin is the ‘Best Performing Asset’

Anthony Pompliano, founder of Morgan Creek Digital, sparked a fervent discussion on Twitter when he noted that the S&P had almost lost $ 755 billion in a single day. Pompliano was putting losses in perspective for cryptocurrency investors, as public equity investors lost more money in a single day than crypto investors did for all of 2018.

Crypto Twitter quickly fired back, as former Wall Street trader John Todaro pointed out the unfair nature of comparing two markets that have different capitalizations. Todaro expanded more on the misleading nature of Pompliano’s tweet, arguing that they should be comparing percentage gains/losses and not raw figures.

Another commenter, Alamentarius, argued that it was unfair to compare the “equity value of every public company” with a “speculative project that turned into a bubble.”

Unfazed, Pompliano defended his initial claims, citing the historical financial performance of bitcoin compared to the S&P. He then boldly described bitcoin as the “best performing asset” on the market.

Andreas Antonopoulos on Bitcoin Death Spirals

With bitcoin prices falling day by day, the ecosystem has been expressing concern about a potential death spiral. To address these concerns, “Mastering Bitcoin” author Andreas Antonopoulos put out a Youtube video explaining death spirals and why he believes they are unlikely scenarios.

Antonopoulos explained that death spirals are triggered by a combination of economic factors crashing the bitcoin price and/or governments shutting down or outlawing mining. This drives down the price of bitcoin, so miners start turning off their mining equipment. The result is a severe drop in mining hash power, or 50 percent in this hypothetical scenario. As mining power falls by half, blocks start to come up every 20 minutes instead of every 10 minutes.

Since bitcoin mining difficulty adjustments are calculated every 2,016 blocks, it now takes four weeks for the difficulty to change instead of two weeks. This slows the network down further, which could lead miners to decide that they aren’t making enough profit. As a result, more and more miners would then decide to shut off their equipment, leading to a vicious downward cycle known as the bitcoin “death spiral.”

After explaining the death spiral, Antonopoulos claimed it is unlikely to happen because miners have a much “long[er]-term perspective.” Since investing in mining equipment requires a huge up-front cost and electricity is purchased on long-term plans, most miners won’t stop mining, as they will assume that profitability will return within a few months.

Do Miners Hold or Sell Their Bitcoin?

Other bitcoiners also have been theorizing about what miners might do with their bitcoin in an extended bear market. As commenter James McAvity noted, the circumstances surrounding each particular mining operation will determine whether miners sell their bitcoins or hold on to them.

McAvity explained that miners that can generate ancillary free power and businesses that are struggling to survive are the ones that are more likely to sell their bitcoins immediately after mining them. By contrast, miners that hold their bitcoins are those that have hedged with futures and options when prices were higher. They could also be smaller operations that have free power or they could be money launderers trying to clean cash by turning it into bitcoin. Alternatively, they could be from high-inflation countries like Venezuela.

What do you think of bitcoin’s performance in 2018? Is it still the best performing asset? What about the likelihood of a death spiral? Do you think miners sell their bitcoins immediately or keep them? Let us know in the comments below.

Images courtesy of Shutterstock.

Keep track of the bitcoin exchange rate in real-time

The post Chatter Report: Pompliano Praises Bitcoin Performance, Antonopoulos Says Death Spiral ‘Unlikely’ appeared first on Bitcoin News.

Bitcoin News

Duterte Makes Unlikely Joke About Drug Use

December 4, 2018 |

President Rodrigo Duterte has waged a controversially bloody war on drug dealers in the Philippines, but that didn’t stop the leader from cracking wise Monday about his own use of illicit substances. Per Reuters , Duterte said in a speech that he used marijuana to stay awake at the Association of…


Why claim Khashoggi’s Apple Watch recorded alleged murder is unlikely

October 13, 2018 |

Experts have dismissed claims that a recording of the alleged killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi may have been transmitted using his Apple Watch. – RSS Channel – World

Companies Turn to an Unlikely Place for Their Next CEO

October 8, 2018 |

GE’s choice to name board member Larry Culp as CEO has led some executives to wonder whether they would be better off seeking out long-retired executives as directors. US Business

China’s Shrinking Trade Surplus Unlikely to Impress Trump

July 30, 2018 |

For years, China has sold much more to the world than it has bought. Now, that imbalance is shrinking, helping Chinese leadership argue it no longer pursues a mercantilist policy. But President Trump, who focuses on the U.S.’s ever-widening trade deficit with China, is unlikely to be impressed. What’s News Europe

Killer Escaped From Prison, Got Ride From Unlikely Source

July 19, 2018 |

A newspaper editor picked up a twice-convicted killer who asked for a ride in Mississippi, not realizing he’d just escaped from prison. Michael “Pretty Boy Floyd” Wilson, serving life sentences for the 2014 killings of two men, jumped a fence at the South Mississippi Correctional Institution in Leakesville on July…

Japanese Economist Explains Why Another Bitcoin Price Surge Is Unlikely

June 29, 2018 |

Yukio Noguchi, a famous economist in Japan and an advisor to Waseda University’s Business and Finance Research Center argues we can’t expect Bitcoin’s prices to rapidly surge again. In his books and in recent articles, Noguchi makes his case eloquently. He wrote a recent article in Diamond Weekly clarifying his position but has been making his case since January of this year and published a book last December.

Also read: The Daily: Analysts Predict Bitcoin Will Rebound, Enthusiasm for State Coins Lost

“Because It’s Now Possible to Trade on Bitcoin Futures You’ll Never See a Rapid Surge Again”

Noguchi points out that the price of BTC is now almost a third of what it was in December of last year. He believes that because it’s now possible to trade on Bitcoin futures people will never see a rapid surge again.

On one hand, he says that because the price of bitcoin has gone down, the costs of sending bitcoin are now back to a level that makes it cheaper than doing bank transactions and this is welcome.

Japanese Economist Explains Why Another Bitcoin Price Surge Is Unlikely
Bitcoin won’t surge, Japanese economist says

He argues that the introduction of the futures market has driven down the price considerably. This year in January he persuasively argued that the cause of Bitcoin price collapse was the start of the selling of bitcoin futures. “Bitcoin prices were a bubble, to begin with, and now we’re seeing a return to normal values. The San Francisco Federal Bank, in a report, also suggested that the introduction of Bitcoin futures trading caused a price drop.

Additionally, the market is heading towards a situation in which it will be possible to short-sell bitcoin futures and that will also contribute to keeping the prices down.

Noguchi points to a paper published on May 7 by the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, “How Futures Trading Changed Bitcoin Prices“, authored by Galina Hale, Arvind Krishnamurthy, Marianna Kudlyak, and Patrick Shultz. Here is the key passage:

“From Bitcoin’s inception in 2009 through mid-2017, its price remained under US$ 4,000. In the second half of 2017, it climbed dramatically to nearly US $ 20,000, but descended rapidly starting in mid-December. The peak price coincided with the introduction of bitcoin futures trading on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. The rapid run-up and subsequent fall in the price after the introduction of futures does not appear to be a coincidence. Rather, it is consistent with trading behavior that typically accompanies the introduction of futures markets for an asset.”

Japanese Economist Explains Why Another Bitcoin Price Surge Is Unlikely
Waseda University, Japan

Noguchi insists that actually, the majority of investors are predicting that prices of bitcoin will continue to fall, especially when some are able to make money from short-selling the cryptocurrency.

He also feels that allowing cryptocurrency to branch off, it makes people feel like they can get new cryptocurrency for free and that also drives down price.

Does he see that as resulting in a decline in the popularity of Bitcoin?

Surprisingly, Noguchi believes it’s a good thing. As the price of bitcoin drops, it becomes a more attractive means of sending money. He calculated that at current prices, if you had to use Mitsubishi UFJ Bank to send money, it costs you 432 yen for any amount above 30,000 yen. But with the current value of Bitcoin, it’s cheaper to send via a regular bank transfer than BTC, unless the value of BTC falls to 675,000 yen. When BTC returns to that level, it will finally be trading at what should be a normal value.

On December 20th last year, Noguchi’s book, “An Introduction To Bitcoin And Blockchain” was published and received rave reviews.

What do you think of Prof. Noguchi’s analysis on Bitcoin surge? Let us know in the comments section below.

Images courtesy of Shutterstock.

Need to calculate your bitcoin holdings? Check our tools section.


The post Japanese Economist Explains Why Another Bitcoin Price Surge Is Unlikely appeared first on Bitcoin News.

Bitcoin News

Google’s retreat from AI contract is unlikely to cool the Pentagon’s love for Silicon Valley

June 14, 2018 |

Silicon Valley’s cutting-edge work increasingly has made it an attractive place for the Pentagon to look for a defensive edge. That’s why military officials recently opened an outpost in Mountain View, Calif., to build relationships with technology start-ups and major players.

The Pentagon’s enthusiasm…

L.A. Times – Business